A note from our CEO

Hi everyone,

Happy Q4! We’re in peak season of Austin: ACL, Formula 1, football season. It’s nonstop here, plus the weather is getting nicer - though it’s still above 90 most days.

This Q4 feels like there is more uncertainty than we’ve had since the pandemic. We had a strong October Prime Day: for some brands, even better than July’s Prime Day. On the other hand, markets are shaky, questions on consumer strength persist, and tariffs haven’t gotten any more certain.

This rapidly changing environment creates lots of opportunity, if you can react fast. Many budgets are being pulled back, creating market share opportunity. Tariffs will likely change gifting sales dynamics this season. Consumers are converting on seasonal products more than typical years. We’re brainstorming how we can capitalize on each individual holiday season in the coming months.

Our best performing brands reacted and adjusted live during the Prime Days last week as the sales, merchandising, and spend dynamics emerged. More on those below.

In this month's newsletter, you'll find:

• Lessons from October Prime Day

• Q4 Outlook

• Upcoming Seasonal Peaks

• The latest sales and ad spend numbers, plus search term trends

Feel free to reply direct - it goes to my inbox!

Pumpkin spice and candy canes,

Chris

Last Month’s Sales and Ad Spend Numbers

Lessons from October Prime Day + Q4 Outlook

This year’s October Prime Day was the strongest yet for many brands in Cartograph’s portfolio, and it got Q4 off to a strong start.

Here are three major takeaways from Amazon’s latest two-day sales event:

1. Seasonality Sells

The biggest winners leaned into seasonality. Brands that prioritized fall scents and flavors, Halloween tie-ins, and limited seasonal SKUs saw some of their best sales days ever, including up to 1,200% above their 30-day average, in some cases. Even small shifts in positioning (“Pumpkin Spice,” “Spooky Edition,” “Fall Favorites”) translated into major velocity.

2. Managing Meltables

We also saw a pivotal change in how Amazon handled meltables, with this years ship in date being moved up to the first week of October. Being able to sell meltable items via Prime Shipping (even with delayed ship dates) proved transformative. One sweets brand saw their largest Amazon sales day ever during the event largely due to Halloween-themed inventory that wasn’t even checked in yet, signaling a new opportunity for front-running demand in meltable categories that have historically been held back by weather and fulfillment constraints.

3. Importance of Tentpole Events

Finally, October Prime Day reaffirmed something we’ve seen time and again on Amazon: tentpole events are worth the effort, even for CPG brands. The brands that performed best ran aggressive discounts, tactically deployed ad budgets, and stayed hands-on throughout the event. They monitored spend in real time and reallocated resources toward what was working. Even if margins dipped temporarily, the upside in new-to-brand customers and long-term sales rank makes it well worth it.

October Prime Day set a strong foundation for Q4. The lesson? Meet customers where their seasonal attention already is, prepare inventory early, and stay nimble during tentpole moments.

Upcoming Seasonal Peaks

Week of October 20

Halloween-related searches hit their highest point the week before the holiday. Now’s the time to push themed inventory and clear through seasonal SKUs.

Week of November 10

As far back as our data goes, “Christmas gift” searches have surged in mid-November. Make sure giftable items are in stock, optimized, and ready to ship.

September Search Term Trends

Each month, we track and analyze search volume and CPCs for popular Amazon search terms. Here are some recent trends we found interesting.