Hi everyone,

Happy November! I hope everyone is enjoying sweater weather and the countdown to the holidays! October sales were up big with October Prime Day, during which a handful of brands did better than July Prime Day. In addition, we kept busy with a month of conferences, ‘25 forecasting, and preparing for the holiday season.

We also dropped our guide to Amazon tentpole days (large sales days like BFCM). Our takeaway from October Prime Day was that quality in preparation and execution is the difference between a modest tentpole event and a big one. Going into the holiday season, this is more important than ever.

Reflecting on our time at unBoxed 📦️ 

A few weeks ago, Amazon invited Cartograph to Austin, Texas (coincidentally, where I live) to celebrate being a finalist for their Ad Partner Awards at UnBoxed, their annual ads conference.

We love attending these conferences because it allows us to sharpen our understanding of Amazon’s ever-changing platform. Here are some of our highlights:

Some thoughts about unBoxed

🥦 Amazon Grocery

They emphasized grocery this year, with an integrated fresh + Whole Foods Market booth.

If you’ve paid any attention to Amazon’s investment in the grocery category, it’s easy to see how much they’ve struggled here. Amazon's logistics don’t favor low-priced grocery items because most purchases are bulk or specialty items.

Consumers don’t view Amazon as a primary grocery shopping destination, so the unit economics aren’t there right now.

Will that change? Maybe.

Either way, it was interesting to see them continue to invest in this.

📺 TV talk

Amazon is bullish on expanding its market share with TV, specifically within sports. There was chatter about Thursday Night Football, the WNBA, NBA coverage, UFC fight nights, AMC, the Superbowl, and more. These are extending to emerging markets as well.

But what intrigues us at Cartograph is how this development enables brands (of all sizes) to run placements to more targeted demographics. Entry to participate in these types of ads is much smaller than that of traditional TV, and you get way better data.

🧸 Brand vs. growth

Amazon talked a lot about the connection between brand marketing and performance marketing. In fact, at Hasbro, brand and performance teams are under the same leadership.

Having both in the same department makes more sense, considering ROAS from performance content is less predictable than it once was, requiring teams to work more cleverly to drive conversions for their products.

🤳 AMC rules everything around me

Once again, AMC was the marquee selling point at unBoxed. Amazon's investment in AMC underscores its dedication to helping advertisers measure media impact across the entire funnel.

For advertisers, integrating AMC is no longer optional; it’s critical for staying competitive, enhancing ad effectiveness, and achieving detailed measurements within Amazon’s ecosystem.

Hot takes from SupplySide West in Las Vegas

We had the opportunity to revisit SupplySide this year, and our team wanted to share some takeaways from another fantastic event.

Here’s what they observed on the ground 👇️

🥛 Protein costs on the rise

Both protein supplements and protein-enhanced consumables have had an enormous year. But while brands are riding the trends in 2024, they’re equally concerned with how expensive protein has gotten. The price of whey has skyrocketed, putting pressure on margins. There are a few possible reasons why:

1. The war in Ukraine is driving up the cost of sunflower lecithin.

2. China continues to buy sweet whey for their cattle farmers.

3. The overall demand for protein has grown considerably.

🌎 The geopolitics of pea protein

On top of the whey protein drama, pricing for supplementary products like pea protein is also rising. And this isn’t unique to the United States, either. For context, more pea protein is manufactured globally than peas grown on farms.

China has been subsidizing its pea farms to intentionally drive down the cost of pea protein. In response, the U.S. government enacted tariffs to protect the U.S. markets. The lower prices and higher quality of domestic pea protein have led many manufacturers to switch to U.S. suppliers with higher-quality products.

Yet, while costs are increasing, customers still seem willing to pay top dollar for products that appear to be “premium.”

There is an upper-tier customer out there who is willing to buy products because it makes that person feel luxurious. The question is whether brands have enough long-tail market to extract from that particular customer.

What else we saw 👀 

On the rise 📈 

1. Interest in collagen peptides is huge right now. We see them everywhere, with clinical research supporting beauty callouts. Beyond the interest, scientific research shows that collagen peptides can help reduce wrinkles and cellulose.

2. We noticed a considerable focus on women's health, healthy aging, and beauty.

3. Many new supplement brands are marketing “mental performance optimization” to customers, highlighting the benefits of sleep quality and gut health. This is a shift away from supplements, which historically targeted “athletic performance” due to using supplements.

On the way down 📉 

1. Probiotics are trending downward this year. Ultimately, this stems from the challenges of making an FDA-compliant product like this.

2. Mushrooms are also less popular than they were in 2023. Interest has dwindled recently, and there hasn’t been any notable innovation in this space, so it may be a case of a short-lived trend finally fizzling out.

BFCM: Black Friday and Cyber Monday 🎁 

This year, Amazon extended the deal period for BFCM to 12 days, starting with the Thursday before Thanksgiving. Not only do products go on sale earlier (and for longer), but this emphasizes how much Amazon gets out of these promo periods.

Our performance on tentpole days and events continues to grow: what used to be a 2-5x average daily sales uplift is now up to 5-10x for many brands.

Here is where we’re focused this year:

• “Front running” deal days with pushes on social and email at the beginning of the day. If you have the highest velocity early in the day, you get more traffic as it grows for the rest of the day.

• Subscribe and Save coupons — using S&S coupons to drive New-to-Brand growth is a great way to find long-term, valuable customers.

• Holiday-specific messaging and product design — we’re big on making content that speaks specifically to the season. Not even just bundles: ribbons added to images and gifting keywords can go a long way.

You can read more about our tentpole strategies in our comprehensive guide, published earlier this week.

Quick note: where to find our white papers ✍️ 

As you know, we migrated from Mailchimp to Beehiiv last month. As a result, we’ve moved our white paper URL links from one host website to another.

If you’d like to access our white paper archive in the future, you can find this content here and on our main Beehiiv webpage.

1. A guide to the supplements industry

2. A guide to the beauty on Amazon

3. A new wave of Creator Brands

4. A guide to tentpole events on Amazon

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